Track Record

Our signals, unedited

Every signal the engine issues is logged and tracked forward to its real outcome — wins and losses alike. Below is the live record plus the full backtest of the same engine: win rate, profit factor, drawdown and whether our confidence scores are honest.

945 backtested trades · updated Oct 5, 2026

Live Track Record
LIVE

Real signals the engine has issued — tracked forward to their actual outcome, not a backtest.

366

Signals issued

44%

Live win rate

-0.02R

Avg result

10

Open now

CoinSignalTFStatusResultIssued
✕
XRP
BUY4H
Open
—12w ago
✕
XRP
BUY4H
Expired
+0.0R12w ago
₳
ADA
SELL4H
Open
—12w ago
GOgoldBUY1D
Open
—12w ago
▲
AVAX
BUY4H
Open
—12w ago
▽
TRX
BUY4H
Open
—12w ago
₳
ADA
SELL4H
Expired
+0.1R12w ago
▲
AVAX
BUY4H
Expired
+0.0R12w ago
GOgoldSELL1D
Expired
-0.5R12w ago
SIsilverSELL4H
Open
—12w ago
▲
AVAX
BUY4H
Expired
+0.0R12w ago
▲
AVAX
BUY4H
Expired
+0.1R12w ago

Outcomes are marked at the 15-minute scan price (not intrabar), so fills are conservative. Live results are independent of the backtest below.

Backtested track record

— historical simulation on real candles

Win Rate

38.4%

share of trades that hit target

Profit Factor

1.01

gross profit ÷ gross loss

Net Result

+7.3R

total profit in risk units

Max Drawdown

24.5R

worst peak-to-trough dip

Equity Curve

How an account following every signal would have grown, in risk units (R).

Cumulative profit in R (risk units) across all backtested trades — +5.5R total. 1R = the amount risked per trade.

By Timeframe

The edge is strongest on 4H (profit factor 1.14). Higher timeframes filter out noise.

TimeframeTradesWin %Avg RProfit FactorNet R
1H30735.8%-0.0530.92-16.2R
4H35743.1%+0.0791.14+28.4R
1D28135.2%-0.0180.97-4.9R

Are our confidence scores honest?

We calibrate the confidence % to the real win rate. When we say a signal is ~45%, it historically wins ~45% — verified below.

Shown 30–40%37.9% actual · 87 trades
Shown 40–44%36.0% actual · 541 trades
Shown 44–47%42.6% actual · 317 trades

A ~45% win rate is profitable here because winners are larger than losers — the average trade still nets a positive return (profit factor 1.01). Confidence measures how often a call is right; risk/reward does the rest.

Methodology

  • No lookahead. Each signal is computed only from candles up to the decision bar; exits are checked on later bars.
  • Conservative fills. When a bar touches both stop and target, the stop is assumed to hit first.
  • Real data. 945 trades over 1,000 candles per market on 5 assets (bitcoin, ethereum, solana, ripple, dogecoin), via Binance.
  • Same engine. The backtest runs the exact production signal engine — what you see live is what was tested.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Backtests can over-fit and exclude slippage, fees and funding. This is research tooling, not financial advice.

See the signals behind these numbers

Create a free account to get live Buy / Sell / Hold signals with the same engine — confidence scores, entries, stops and targets included.